Idaho Power drives me crazy with their winter estimation methodology. They use prior year data from November-March but don't account for temperature variations. This year we had the coldest November in 20 years, but they're estimating heating loads based on last year's mild winter. I've got commercial clients seeing 30-40% under-estimates, which means massive true-up bills in spring. Anyone else dealing with utilities that refuse to use weather normalization for estimates?
Idaho Power's ridiculous winter estimation methods
Warren, Texas utilities generally use heating/cooling degree days for estimates, but it varies by company. Oncor does temperature adjustments, but some of the co-ops still use straight historical averages. The problem is estimates should be conservative, not blindly historical. If you know it's an unusually cold winter, estimates should trend higher, not lower. Have you tried requesting they switch to actual reads during extreme weather periods? Some utilities will do that if you ask nicely.
We see this in Kansas with Evergy. Their estimation algorithm is stuck in the 1990s. They use simple 12-month averaging without any weather adjustment. Warren, try filing a complaint about inadequate estimation methodology. In Kansas, the KCC has ruled that utilities must use "reasonable estimation methods" which should include weather normalization. If Idaho Power's method consistently produces inaccurate results, that might violate their obligation to provide reasonable estimates.
Ohio utilities learned this lesson the hard way. AEP used to do straight historical estimates until customers started filing massive complaints about winter true-up bills. Now they use a hybrid method with weather data and usage trending. Warren, the key argument is that estimates should minimize surprise, not just follow simple math. If Idaho Power's method creates predictable billing shocks, that's poor utility practice. Document the temperature variance and show how weather normalization would have produced better estimates.
Tennessee utilities have moved to much more sophisticated estimation. TVA distributors now use weather data, historical patterns, AND customer-specific adjustments. Warren, the argument that works here is "reasonable utility practice." If other utilities can do weather-normalized estimates, why can't Idaho Power? Also check if they offer budget billing - that spreads costs evenly and eliminates the true-up shock issue. Sometimes the solution is changing billing methods, not just estimation methods.
Alabama Power actually has one of the better estimation systems I've seen. They use 5-year weather averages, customer load profiles, and economic indicators. Warren, your Idaho Power situation sounds like they're using 1980s technology. The solution might be regulatory pressure to modernize their estimation algorithms. If enough customers complain about inaccurate estimates causing cash flow problems, the commission usually forces utilities to upgrade their methods.
Thanks everyone. I've documented temperature variations and calculated what their estimates should have been using degree-day adjustments. The difference is huge - they're under-estimating by $15,000+ per month for some of my larger clients. Filing complaints with Idaho PUC about inadequate estimation methodology. Also requesting they implement weather normalization or at least offer more frequent actual reads during extreme weather. This is exactly why utilities need to modernize their systems.
Warren, also look into Idaho's winter protection rules. Arkansas requires utilities to minimize estimation during heating season specifically to prevent large spring bills that hurt customers financially. If Idaho has similar consumer protection rules, Idaho Power might be violating them by using inadequate estimation methods during winter months. The argument is that poor estimates during heating season cause financial hardship through delayed billing of essential services.
This is a common problem with smaller utilities that haven't invested in modern billing systems. In Texas, some of the rural co-ops still use manual estimation methods while the major utilities have sophisticated algorithms. Warren, consider proposing a pilot program where Idaho Power uses weather-adjusted estimates for willing customers. Sometimes utilities are more open to "testing" new methods rather than wholesale changes to their billing systems.
Pennsylvania has specific rules about estimation accuracy during extreme weather. Utilities must either increase read frequency or use weather-adjusted estimates when temperatures exceed certain thresholds. Warren, check if Idaho has similar rules - they might be violating existing regulations. Also, PP&L actually sends out notices when they're using weather-adjusted estimates, which helps customers budget for higher winter bills. Transparency helps even when the bills are higher.
Wisconsin went through this exact issue with WE Energies about five years ago. The solution was a formal complaint about estimation methodology filed by multiple customer groups. The PSC ordered WE Energies to implement weather normalization within 18 months. Warren, organize other affected customers and file a joint complaint. Individual complaints about estimation methods usually get dismissed, but when multiple parties show systematic problems, commissions pay attention.
Warren, I just dealt with this exact issue with Rocky Mountain Power in Utah. Similar climate, similar problems with winter estimates. The breakthrough was proving that their method violated their own tariff language about "reasonable estimates." Most tariffs require estimates to approximate actual usage - if they're systematically wrong by 30-40%, that's not reasonable. Idaho Power probably has similar tariff language you can use against them.
Update: Idaho PUC opened a formal investigation into Idaho Power's estimation practices. Apparently I wasn't the only one complaining. They've ordered Idaho Power to file a report on their estimation methodology and consider weather normalization. Meanwhile, several of my clients got approved for more frequent actual reads during winter months. Sometimes you have to push these utilities to do their job properly. Thanks for all the strategic advice - the tariff language angle was particularly helpful.
Warren, great outcome! This is exactly why we need to hold utilities accountable for their basic service obligations. Weather normalization isn't rocket science - it's been standard practice for decades. The fact that Idaho Power was still using straight historical averages in 2020 shows how some utilities lag behind industry standards. Your complaint probably helped dozens of other customers who were getting hit with surprise winter bills. Sometimes regulatory pressure is the only thing that forces utilities to modernize.