Duke Energy Florida just filed revised fuel adjustment factors with the PSC and I'm seeing some dramatic swings month to month. January 2025 shows -$0.0234/kWh but February jumps to +$0.0187/kWh. My hotel clients are getting whipsawed by these changes. Has anyone built a good tracking model for DEF's fuel clause methodology? The tariff language is pretty opaque about how they calculate the recovery factors. - Manny G.
Duke Energy Florida Fuel Adjustment Clause Changes - Anyone Tracking This?
Manny, I've been tracking similar issues with ERCOT fuel adjustments here in Texas. The monthly swings are brutal for budget forecasting. I built an Excel model that pulls historical factors from the PSC docket system and tries to predict based on natural gas futures. Not perfect but gives clients some advance warning. Happy to share the framework if you're interested. - Vanessa P.
Duke Energy Carolinas has similar volatility. The key is understanding their hedging strategy and fuel mix changes. DEF has been retiring coal units and adding more gas peakers, which makes them more sensitive to spot gas prices. Check their integrated resource plan filings for the generation mix details. - Karen W.
Good discussion here. Florida's fuel adjustment mechanism allows for both over and under recovery, which creates those negative adjustments when they've collected too much in prior months. The calculation involves a complex true-up process that looks back 12-18 months. For tracking purposes, focus on DEF's monthly fuel docket filings (usually Docket 20250001-EI series). They break down purchased power costs, coal costs, gas costs, and emission allowances separately. I've found their October and April filings usually contain the most detailed methodology explanations. - Randy Dawson
We track Dominion Energy Virginia's fuel factor the same way. Their rider FA has similar monthly swings. The trick is getting the PSC staff's review comments - they often question the utility calculations and force revisions that can predict future trends. Virginia SCC posts these in their document center about 30 days after initial filing. - Pam H.
Vanessa, I'd definitely be interested in your Excel framework. The client complaints about bill volatility are getting intense. Karen, I found DEF's IRP from 2024 and you're absolutely right about the generation mix shift. They're adding 1,200 MW of gas capacity by 2026 which will make fuel adjustments even more volatile. Randy, found those October docket filings - incredibly detailed. Thanks everyone for the guidance! - Manny G.